NORTHFIELD, Ill., June 23, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Bernardi Securities, Inc. (BSI) released a white paper introducing the Environmental Risk Index ("ERI"), a tool that scores all 3,147 U.S. counties on natural disaster risk. The Index combines FEMA's hazard frequency data across 18 natural disaster categories with county-level property insurance non-renewal rates - providing a more credit-relevant measure of geographic risk for municipal bond investors.
Average annual disaster costs have grown roughly 3.60%-6.10% per year since 2005, above the 2.40% rate of inflation. Potential waning federal support for disaster recovery adds further urgency for municipal credit analysts to assess geographic risk.
Florida leads the nation in environmental risk, followed by Oklahoma, Arizona, California, and Hawaii. At the county level, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Riverside counties in California each score the riskiest. Michigan ranks as the lowest-risk state, anchoring a Midwestern risk profile that benefits from relatively lower disaster risk and healthier insurance markets.
A key methodological distinction: unlike FEMA's National Risk Index, the ERI removes economic value as an input. Bernardi argues that greater wealth is a resilience factor - not a vulnerability - and that FEMA's size-and-wealth bias distorts risk rankings. Under the ERI, Los Angeles County falls from FEMA's #1 riskiest county to #12, while smaller, more economically concentrated counties rank higher.
BSI believes the Midwest's lower risk profile is not reflected in municipal bond valuations, creating a structural opportunity. Midwestern issuers often trade at wider spreads due to lower benchmark representation — not weaker fundamentals.
About Bernardi
Founded in 1984, BSI specializes in municipal bond portfolio management. Bernardi Asset Management (BAM) is a wholly owned subsidiary of BSI. Combined, the two have assets under advisement of over $1.95 billion.
MEMBER FINRA - MEMBER SIPC
This release is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy/sell any security. The ERI is a proprietary, backward-looking tool based on historical data and is not a predictor of future events. ERI scores are complementary tool, and do not independently determine credit risk. Views expressed are subject to change. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal.
Contact: Matthew Bernardi, Senior Vice President
Company: Bernardi Securities
Phone: 312-281-2015
Email: matt.bernardi@bernardisecurities.com
PDF available: http://ml.globenewswire.com/Resource/Download/63db8e5a-88e6-4257-ae4c-a260dd6db1a2
